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Cameron faces Ukip by-election bloodbath: Party set to win first
Commons seat after shock poll reveals Farage's staggering 44-point lead
over the Tories
- Ukip set to win first Commons seat with a landslide 64 per cent of the vote
- Douglas Carswell is set to win Clacton by-election sparked by his defection
- Figures predict a record 48 point swing towards Ukip, humiliating the Tories
Published:
18:37 EST, 30 August 2014
|
Updated:
21:22 EST, 30 August 2014
Ukip are
set to win their first Commons seat with a landslide 64 per cent of the
vote following the biggest swing in modern political history.
Turncoat
MP Douglas Carswell is set to humiliate David Cameron at the Clacton
by-election sparked by his defection, a Survation poll for The Mail on
Sunday has revealed.
The
figures – the first test of public opinion since the politician rocked
Westminster by defecting to Nigel Farage’s party – predict a record 48
point swing towards Ukip.
Scroll down for video
+5
Shocking: According to the poll, London Mayor
Boris Johnson would win 27 per cent against Mr Carswell's 60, cutting
Ukip's lead by 11. But it would still leave Boris with a yawning 33
point deficit
And
they put the anti-Brussels party a staggering 44 percentage points
ahead of Mr Carswell’s former party in the Essex constituency.
If
the results are repeated in the by-election, expected in October, the
swing would exceed the current record 44 points achieved by Lib Dem MP
Simon Hughes when he thrashed Labour’s Peter Tatchell, the gay rights
campaigner, in a by-election in Bermondsey, South London, in 1983.
The biggest anti-Tory swing to date is the 35 points achieved by the Lib Dems in the Christchurch by-election in 1993.
The 48
point Ukip swing in Clacton is partly the result of the party not having
stood in the 2010 Election, so their support has gone from nought to 64
per cent in one leap.
The poll blow came as senior Tory MP Sir Nicholas Soames fiercely criticised Mr Carswell.
Former Defence Minister Sir Nicholas told The Mail on Sunday: ‘What Douglas Carswell has done is sheer madness.
+5
Staggering: The figures - the first test of
public opinion since the politician rocked Westminster by defecting to
Nigel Farage's party - predict a record 48 point swing towards Ukip
‘It is rank disloyalty to a party that gave him a place in Parliament."
‘Douglas
is a very unusual MP and it has been clear for some time where his true
political sympathies lie.’
-
- Tory chiefs plan to flood the seaside
constituency with Ministers and MPs in an attempt to hold back
Carswell’s tidal wave of support.
But
the poll suggests it may be impossible. Mr Carswell’s lead means the
Tories will need a miracle to retain the seat and stop him becoming
Ukip’s first MP.
Even charismatic Boris Johnson would have little chance of defeating strait-laced Mr Carswell.
According
to the Survation poll, the London Mayor would win 27 per cent against
Mr Carswell’s 60, cutting Ukip’s lead by 11. But it would still leave
Boris with a yawning 33 point deficit.
+5
Heading for victory: Douglas Carswell with Ukip
leader Nigel Farage. Turncoat MP Douglas Carswell is set to humiliate
David Cameron at the Clacton by-election sparked by his defection
Mr
Carswell’s astonishing 64 per cent appears to be a reflection of a
combination of enormous local personal support for him – and for Ukip.
Of
those who intend to vote Ukip, two-thirds said that they would do so
because they liked the party, and one in three because they like Mr
Carswell.
Fewer than one in ten said it was to protest against the
Government.
Fewer than one in five Tory supporters in Clacton believe he
has ‘betrayed’ the party – half hail him as a hero.
Mr
Farage is close to being the most popular party leader in Clacton,
polling 25 from all voters, one point behind Mr Cameron on 26.
+5
Mr Cameron's attempt to strike back at Farage by
arguing that a vote for Ukip will make it easier for Ed Miliband to
become Prime Minister is having no effect on Ukip's support
Nor
is Mr Cameron’s attempt to strike back at Farage by arguing that a vote
for Ukip will make it easier for Ed Miliband to become Prime Minister,
having any effect on Ukip’s support.
Nearly
seven in ten said such warnings had no impact; 15 per cent said they
were less likely to vote Ukip with 16 per cent more likely.
Mr Carswell’s
reasons for defecting to Ukip also win strong approval:
Half
or more agreed with the statements that Mr Cameron is ‘too keen’ on
staying in the EU; refuses to ‘shake up the Westminster clique’; has
lost control of the UK’s borders; should cut both spending and tax; and
should bring in new laws to make it easier for voters to sack MPs in
between general elections.
Likewise,
the residents of Clacton, which is opposite the Belgian coast, heartily
agree with Mr Carswell’s determination to cut the UK’s ties with
Brussels.
A total of 54 per cent say the UK should go it alone, more
than twice the number who want to stay in the EU.
Immigration
is by far the biggest issue in Clacton.
Nearly half say it is their
main concern, followed by Europe on 13 per cent, cost of living six,
jobs five and health three.
While the Tories are by far the biggest loser in Clacton, the survey also makes grim reading for Mr Miliband and Nick Clegg.
Labour
support has halved to a mere 13 per cent since the 2010 Election and
the Lib Dems are almost off the graph at a paltry two per cent, compared
to 11 per cent in 2010.
Mr Miliband’s personal rating is eight per cent, with Mr Clegg on just three.
A
Tory official said last night: ‘Mr Carswell has had the benefit of huge
publicity over the last few days. We were taken by complete surprise by
his defection.
‘Once
we have chosen a candidate and started to canvass in Clacton and can
show that voting Tory is the only way to get a referendum in the EU, we
are confident we will do very well in the by-election.’
Survation polled 700 people online on Thursday and Friday.
- David
Cameron’s drive to reform the EU ahead of a mooted in-out referendum
was given a major boost by the new president of the European Council
last night. Donald Tusk, who will
give up his job as Polish Prime Minister, said he ‘could not imagine’
the EU without Britain as a member – insisting it would be possible to
‘reach an agreement’ on issues such as freedom of movement of labour.
This really IS a political earthquake, writes Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of poll firm Survation
+5
Mr Carswell, pictured, has been accused of
betraying his party, but that is not how the vast majority of his
constituents see him
Political earthquake is an expression often used without justification, but not in the case of our Clacton poll result.
It
shows that the by-election triggered by sitting Conservative MP Douglas
Carswell’s defection to Ukip could go down in British political history
as one of the most dramatic of all time.
Based
on the poll, the 12,000 majority Mr Carswell won as a Conservative in
Clacton in 2010 would turn into an even bigger one for Ukip of more than
15,000 on a similar turnout.
It has alarming implications for David Cameron and the Conservatives.
Mr Carswell has been accused of betraying his party, but that is not how the vast majority of his constituents see him.
Today’s
survey lays to rest the notion that Mr Carswell defected for cynical
reasons after becoming convinced that if he didn’t, he would lose to
Ukip.
Such
is his personal popularity that he would almost certainly have won the
seat had he fought it with a blue rosette next May, rather than now in
the yellow and purple colours of Ukip.
Most
worrying of all for the Prime Minister is the reaction of other
potential Tory MP defectors to the likely outcome of the by-election.
If
Mr Carswell lost or won narrowly, other like-minded Conservatives
toying with going over to Ukip would probably conclude it was far too
risky.
But
if he wins with a record-breaking swing, as our poll suggests he could,
they may decide it is more risky to fight the next election as a Tory
candidate than as a Ukip one.
And that could change the landscape of British politics.
Read more:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2738787/Cameron-faces-Ukip-election-bloodbath-Party-set-win-Commons-seat-shock-poll-reveals-Farages-staggering-44-point-lead-Tories.html#ixzz3Bzt6EqIj
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